Any thoughts on the Southern California market? - Posted by Michael

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Any thoughts on the Southern California market? - Posted by Michael

Posted by Michael on July 04, 2004 at 03:20:26:

I have seen a couple of articles that have said the Southern California market has topped out and starting to soften. Does anybody have any thoughts? Is it happening or are newspaper companies just trying to sell newspapers?

NEWSPAPER ARTICLES - Posted by TT

Posted by TT on July 04, 2004 at 18:13:05:

Yep, Prices are without a doubt at a peak.

If it is PRINTED IN THE NEWSPAPER, or written about by
Robert Campbell…

…then it MUST be true.

Any thoughts on the Southern California market? - Posted by Robert Campbell

Posted by Robert Campbell on July 04, 2004 at 14:01:17:

Michael,

If you believe, like I believe, that a picture is worth a 1,000 words, take a look at the graph of housing prices on the front of the June 10, 2004 issue of The San Diego Union Tribune.

After looking at this chart … and when the So-Cal housing does start to soften, nobody with two eyes can argue that it came without warning signals.

Do trees grow to the sky?

Robert Campbell

Re: Any thoughts Southern California market? - Posted by Ken

Posted by Ken on July 04, 2004 at 07:43:40:

Depends on what you are into.

I specialize in fixer-uppers and therefore the market makes no difference to me. Whether it is a buyer’s market or sellers’ market, it won’t matter because I look for properties that are not even listed for sell and I buy accordingly.

If you are buying property at retail prices and conventionally, then such articles may determine which way you want to go.

Just my opinion–I am not an expert though (smile)

Ken

Re: NEWSPAPER ARTICLES - Posted by Robert Campbell

Posted by Robert Campbell on July 04, 2004 at 20:18:55:

If you want the truth, here it is …

I’m just a struggling writer who has his opinions . . . and who humbly tries to observe the world around him, study the the laws of cause and effect, and use the laws of probability to predict future events.

Based upon your comments, I make this prediction: You’ll never be a member of my fan club.

While broken-hearted, I’ll try to put the disappointment behind me and carry on. :o)

Happy 4th of July … and best wishes.

Robert Campbell

Topping Signs? - Posted by Verve

Posted by Verve on July 04, 2004 at 16:57:08:

In my area of So Cal, there are a few signs worth noting -

  • Inventory is increasing
  • Price reductions are increasing
  • Days on market are increasing

Have we topped and due for a fall? Who knows. Dataquick’s analysts seem to think that we’re not in for a decline anytime soon. Those guys have their finger on the marketplace better than most folks…

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Re: Topping Signs? - Posted by Gaymond Lee

Posted by Gaymond Lee on July 04, 2004 at 20:54:36:

Inventory increasing is good IMhO so the valuations don’t get further out of whack and incomes can catch up. Days on the market are increasing but mainly due to sellers still being unrealistic by asking X% over the last closed sale. Price reductions are asking prices which were high to begin with so reductions don’t carry as much weight since I have not noticed any closed sales being lower than the last comp. No one can predict a short time frame but I’m in escrow on my 3rd home in So Cal and just leased 1 of my rentals for 2 years at an increase over the previous tenant (listed on the MLS as a lease) in less than 2 days. Buyers are being more sophisticated when choosing their mortgage products and yes I am going to choose interest only on my new purchase so I can have enough cash to carry the current home (on a 15 yr fixed) as it will be a neg cash flow for several years until the rents catch up to it.

Re: Topping Signs? - Posted by Robert Campbell

Posted by Robert Campbell on July 04, 2004 at 18:02:46:

Don’t you find it interesting that the analysts at DataQuick have never cautioned its readers that when trends get out of whack and run to extremes on the bell curve … in this case to extremely high valuations with respect to incomes and affordability … that these trends will eventually revert the mean?

One way or another, changes will happen to valuations or incomes to bring the ratios back in line with longer-term norms.

So you examine the probabilities, pay your money, and place your bet.

Robert Campbell

Re: Topping Signs? - Posted by Lee Gartner

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Famous last words… - Posted by randyOH

Posted by randyOH on July 04, 2004 at 23:24:37:

“…as it will be a neg cash flow for several years until the rents catch up to it.”

I wish I had a dollar for everyone who said that in 1989.

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Re: Topping Signs? - Posted by todd

Posted by todd on July 04, 2004 at 20:24:42:

Robert, I like your comments and evaluations.

I will have to pick up your book sometime soon.

I would really like to hear more of what you say.

Thanks for your time.
Todd

Re: Famous last words… - Posted by Gaymond Lee

Posted by Gaymond Lee on July 05, 2004 at 03:17:24:

Well, neg cash flow works for me because I am not limited to the $25k for passive losses deductions as a Real Estate professional. The sum of the years neg rental was 1/2 month of RE income last month (good month for me) and I am just finishing my first year as an agent/broker.

Thanks Todd … - Posted by Robert Campbell

Posted by Robert Campbell on July 05, 2004 at 12:22:21:

Hi Todd,

Thank you for the kind words.

I find that the art and science of decision-making in an ever-changing and ever-uncertain world is a fascinating subject.

Wealth takes time to build. Therefore, if you can apply the laws of probability to investment decision-making over the course of your lifetime, you will undoubtedly be rewarded with a richer future.

Best wishes,

Robert Campbell