Changing Times - Posted by Tony Colella

import · August 24, 2011, 9:30am

Posted by Bernd Hanak on August 27, 2011 at 10:27:05:

In a conscious effort to be less discouraging than I am already, I avoided the reference to survival. But I completely agree with you that survival is the essential concept that challenges each of us. Americans are unaccustomed to a creeping centrally controlled economy, to the socialization of other people?s debts, to the apparent-- as more or less surreptitiously enforced by the controllers-- irrelevance of their constitution in favor of international and domestic entities. But, this trend in motion continues unless it is stopped by an unforeseen major event. Nobody has a crystal ball, and the most reasonable expectations we have, based on our present knowledge, still have to be classed as pure conjectures. We also have to be cognizant of the fact that the controllers have a strong survival instinct, just as we have. I also very much agree with you that voting with one?s feet has always been an effective tool for the individual?s survival and the discovery of new opportunities. At the end, the winner is not the one with the greatest number of toys, but the one whose toys are still intact.

import · August 24, 2011, 9:30am

Posted by Tony Colella on August 24, 2011 at 09:30:10:

These days it seems like just about everything is changing. Business models have had to change, assumptions and strategies have had to change and I guess the hardest thing to change is our own way of thinking.

Most of us still have the same goals and dreams so that may or may not need to change. It is the thinking process and the physical process of obtaining these goals that must change.

Perspective might be a better way of saying it. We must change how we perceive the market and how we react to it. We have had to challenge previous assumption and consider new ones.

At the risk of being deleted here, even MHU has changed ownership. Bigger players like Steve Case have had to change focus and retool. I can certainly understand that. I truly believe that he and others like him will figure out a new strategy and once he has proven it to himself I am sure he and others like him will come back and share the advice.

Recently Lonnie asked me to speak at a mobile home investing event in his backyard. This is truly and honor for me. Lonnie doesn’t care to travel to speak much anymore so having this event near his home makes for a great opportunity for all of us to spend time with him and to hear his words of wisdom. Lonnie never stops thinking. He is a great encourager and someone who believes that opportunity always exists and that it is our own thinking that either limits or capitalizes on these opportunities.

I plan to share many of the changes I have experienced in the mobile home investing game and what I am doing to adapt. Many of these changes are happening now so some will only be food for thought as I won’t know the outcomes but others will be new adaptations of old methods that are proving effective.

In these changing times I believe it is vitally important that we seek out the advice and experience of others. Whether we are big or small investors, new or seasoned, now is the time to get together and find out what is and is not working.

If nothing else I think we all need to re-charge our investing batteries and get some positive momentum happening.

I do hope you will consider attending the event in Norfolk, Virginia this coming October 29-31.

Tony Colella

import · August 26, 2011, 1:06am

Re: Changing Times - Posted by Jeanne

Posted by Jeanne on August 26, 2011 at 01:06:11:

Change is uncomfortable, Tony. But you’re right. I feel like we are on cusp of something exciting…

I’ll post the details of the Norfolk, VA event below with the full disclosure that it is an affiliate link, and you can get the exact same details at LonnieScruggs.net.

I personally endorse Lonnie Scruggs and Tony Colella and anything with which they are involved.

–Jeanne Ekhaml, Creative Real Estate Online

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import · August 24, 2011, 11:08am

Re: Changing Times - Posted by Dr. B. (OH)

Posted by Dr. B. (OH) on August 24, 2011 at 11:08:23:

Certainly, “Adapt or Die” is still the motto. I am currently in neutral having downshifted to third with high revs during the summer.

I am challenging myself to think of a new idea as I go through my day. Whether it is a far fetched idea like flying cars (they do have them, you know)or something practical related to alternative energy, or a different stab at the mobile home industry. I’m looking forward to putting it into first then moving through the gears again reaching overdrive.

Steve

import · August 24, 2011, 11:08pm

Re: Changing Times - Posted by Bernd Hanak

Posted by Bernd Hanak on August 24, 2011 at 23:08:56:

As specie we resent change. The familiar status quo seems to be our desired comfort level. Generally, our attitude towards the present and perception of the future are based on our recent experiences, say the last ten years. The limited reference can easily mislead our expectations of a near or medium- term future. A little familiarity with history teaches us that life is cyclical, even generational. As investors, it also teaches us that different assets have their time in the sun and eventually are replaced by something that seems to be more desirable. The past credit- debt- based economy has given way to the consumer?s deleveraging and the dollar?s devaluation. Consumers don?t want to borrow and the banks don?t want to lend. A sense of prevailing uncertainty permeates in our society today. None of us is immune from the effects of the socio-economic-political changes confronting us. Instinctively we want to accommodate change for our personal benefit or alternatively become the victim of change. The choice is always our own. But what is constant, what has survived the onslaughts against the common man through the ages? What promises to be our best personal guide to profitably navigate through the changes? It is simply the application of common sense; the recognition that a successful life is based on some well known, universal principles, such as: Always consume less than you produce and invest the savings. Wealth becomes inevitable with time. Every one of us can meet change successfully.

import · August 26, 2011, 8:41pm

Re: Changing Times - Posted by Bernd Hanak

Posted by Bernd Hanak on August 26, 2011 at 20:41:19:

Some highly respected authors and equally outstanding investors advocate ?that opportunity always exists, and that it is our own thinking that either limits or capitalizes on these opportunities.? That is theoretically a true guide line and an encouraging motivator for the beginner as well as for the more seasoned investor. The limiting factors are of course the local, the educational and financial readiness of the individual and the intensity of his desire to realize his goal. Another equally significant variable, and today perhaps the most causal reason curtailing an investor?s enthusiasm, or it should be, is the unpredictability of our socio-economic environment for the foreseeable future. We are inundated with one crisis after another and with no reasonable solution for any one of them. Chaos, demonstration and revolution seem to be on the daily media diet world-wide. For an investor to confidently risk his savings into a new venture, while nothing in the market is cheap, reminds me more of a gamble than a calculated risk. Who can say with reasonable certainty that the equity market might not decline by 50%, the real estate market and the purchasing power of our fiat dollar by a similar amount? We live in very uncertain times and it may be prudent to face reality, take care of the basics, and get ready for the time when we can actually buy for pennies on the dollar; that is what I consider to be opportunistic.

import · August 27, 2011, 7:13am

Re: Changing Times - Posted by Tony Colella

Posted by Tony Colella on August 27, 2011 at 07:13:49:

Bernd,

You suggest that the limiting factors, in addition to Government and our own mindset, are “of course the local, the educational and financial readiness of the individual and the intensity of his desire to realize his goal.”

It is my sincere belief that the mindset is by far the most limiting factor. “Stinking Thinking” is contagious and certainly a slippery slope that is compounded by the incertainty created in the market by Gov’t inteference in the free market.

I agree that some markets are currently hit harder than others for a variety of reasons, unemployment being a leading local factor that is hard and slow to overcome.

We both know investors who now focus on areas outside of where they live. Lonnie himself used a phrase something like, “you are NOT a tree, you can move if you need to.” Now some may physically move and others may just move their business targets.

In a recent CD that Lonnie gave you and I as gifts I recall him talking about unemployment and how it amazed him that people will stay in one place with no job and not move to one just an hour or two away that has plenty of jobs. The same I think is true of career changes.

Years ago I moved to North Carolina because I did not see the opportunity in Northern Virginia that I did in Asheville. I realize not everyone can move. For those that can’t it is important to prepare for what may come and for me that also means keeping your head out of the sand so as to see the opportunities as they present themselves. We need that positive mindset and understanding of voids in the market so that we can keep our heads up. I agree we must be realistic.

We have all read the stories of people who simply refused to quit. Prisoners of war, horribly injured soldiers, business folks who went from rags to riches for example. We call these people survivors and for many of us that may be what we need to become. But without that mindset, even the best prepared can panic and fall. I have seen “stinking thinking” destroy people even in the best of times. There are opportunities in this country and some may or may not be right in our own backyards.

I am a believer in learning from others when my own knowledge is found lacking. I do hope that investors will get together with others from outside their own city, town or county so as to see just where and what opportunities may be exciting other investors.

There is no easy button for success. The knowledge may come in bits and pieces and it is up to each of us to put that puzzle together for ourselves.

Tony