Chart pattern for interest rates - Posted by Robert Campbell

Posted by Robert Campbell on July 16, 2003 at 10:59:53:

John, you are absolutely correct about the need to identify the time frame for trend reversals.

Personally, I like the short-term trends in most of the commodity and financial markets.

Interestingly, after Greenspan tried to talk down the chance that interest rates would start to rise (because of the economy is strengthing), bond prices plunged and interest rates soared.

The market talks louder than the Fed, and that’s why knowing how to read a chart (1-2-3 trend reversal patters, for example, short-term or long-term) offer valuable clues to the direction that any given market is likely to go next.

Robert Campbell

Chart pattern for interest rates - Posted by Robert Campbell

Posted by Robert Campbell on July 16, 2003 at 09:27:54:

For those of you who believe that interest rate trends are an important factor to the health of the real estate markets - both local and national - below is the link that shows the chart for 10-year Notes.

To illustrate how chart reading can give clues to the future direction of the market, notice how the peak of the market was characterized by a lower high and a lower low … and not the higher high and higher low that characterize a continuation of the uptrend in prices and the downtrend in interest rates.

Robert Campbell

Re: Chart pattern for interest rates - Posted by John V, FL

Posted by John V, FL on July 16, 2003 at 10:41:15:

Robert, the long term trend for three or more years (and all the way back to the early 80’s) is still down in yield and up in price. Need a move and consolidation above 4.5% yields on the 10 year treasury for a real confirmation that this is not a head fake. Though I hate predicting shorter term I would guess the 10 yr yields will be in the 4 to 5% range till the elections which is a continuation of the trend you see. You are right that this is a trend and its been going on quietly for several months. I don’t think this is in the mind of any real estate investors these days though but it should be unless you are in the quick flip biz or a very long term buy and hold strategy where the cash flow numbers work and your interest rates are fixed for the duration. I do find the financial markets fascinating. For instance the market is predicting a resurgence in tech spending so those empty office buildings in Silicon Valley (and not the houses) might be the real steal at this point.