HOW AE WE GOING TO MAKE MONEY ON THE CRASH?? - Posted by Tommy

import · October 27, 2006, 11:38am

Re: I just do not see a crash - Posted by Robert Heilbroner

Posted by Robert Heilbroner on October 27, 2006 at 11:38:14:

“The bad news is that we are using up the world’s natural resources @ a fa$t clip, & the bill is going to have to be paid. It’s a whopper, too.”

Not to get too far off topic here but…we’ll never run out of natural resources.

To ease your mind, you might want to read Paul Pilzer’s Economic Alchemy Theories in his classic book entitled God Wants You to be Rich. Sam Walton stated that his entire business was based around the principles of this book. It’s an easy read and makes perfect sense.

Basically, natural resources change as civilizations and economies needs change. For example, this entire country’s energy supply was based around the whaling industry up until the 1800s when that source was near extinction. Then there was Great Britain’s Coal Panic of 1865. Around the same time,in 1859 Col Drake drilled the first oil well in Titusville, PA and we haven’t stopped finding new fuel sources ever since. Alternative fuels, etc. Another tangent…in 1970, who would have believed that our current information based economy would be fueled by sand (silica)?

Bottom line, we’ll switch to another fuel source long before we deplete the existing petroleum based energy source and yes, the current oil companies will simply switch to the next profitable fuel source instead of going out of business so don’t worry about them. :^)

Does it really matter how many barrels of crude are taken each day? Absolutely not. What matters is the amount of efficiency with which we use each barrel.

For example, in the the early 80s when auto manufacturers switched from carburetors to fuel injection, we essentially doubled the world’s oil supply because cars doubled their fuel efficiency and required less oil to be refined into gasoline. Same thing with virtually all other petroleum based products.

Same argument can be made with building materials, etc.

All the Best,
Robert

import · October 27, 2006, 10:16am

“longitudinal data” - Posted by JT-IN

Posted by JT-IN on October 27, 2006 at 10:16:43:

Ooh, I like that term… Not sure that I know its meaning, but I like it…

I am going to make it a point to use that term in some business discussion today, just to see what kind of reaction the receipient has… LOL. Gosh, I hope they don’t ask me what that means…

import · October 27, 2006, 9:08pm

Re: I just do not see a crash - Posted by Sailor

Posted by Sailor on October 27, 2006 at 21:08:49:

Yes, necessity is the mother of invention, but our species has been so rapacious of Mother Earth that soon we’ll reach the tipping point from which recovery is not possible. The attitude that we can use up resources because there’s always some other resource we can gobble up just doesn’t make sense to me.

My personal philosophy, developed through an education in science, is that we are simply one species of many, all interdependent, & if we muck up our environment we all lose. We Homo sapiens are a particularly destructive group, & if we continue to foul our own nest our environment simply w/fail to support us. We are not only arrogant, but ignorant of ecology (the study of living things, their environment & the relations between them), & our license to destroy needs to be revoked.

Tye

import · October 27, 2006, 9:10pm

Re: “longitudinal data” - Posted by Sailor

Posted by Sailor on October 27, 2006 at 21:10:46:

Glad I had that troublesome varicose vein removed, 'cause I think
you are pulling my leg, kid.

Tye (who likes her data collected over time)

import · October 28, 2006, 6:13pm

Re: I just do not see a crash - Posted by Pit bull

Posted by Pit bull on October 28, 2006 at 18:13:10:

You are out of your gord. On this subject most scientists are “Chicken Little with the sky is falling” Wake up and smell the roses. Mother nature has a way of makingh up for many mistakes.

import · October 28, 2006, 12:47am

Re: I just do not see a crash - Posted by Robert Heilbroner

Posted by Robert Heilbroner on October 28, 2006 at 24:47:23:

You may be right. Then again, one person’s beliefs often appear to be obtuse when analized by another with differing beliefs.

For example, one person might see inexhaustable abundance where another only sees scarcity. True?

I wish to clarify that my previous post was not meant to imply that we as a species ‘gobble up’ natural resources as we move from one to another. However, would you agree that nature abhors a vacuum?

…and a bumble bee obtains flight while scientists steadfastly argue that it is an impossibility.

Hardly profound yet undeniably true.

Robert

import · October 28, 2006, 12:20am

Re: I just do not see a crash - Posted by Bill Nye

Posted by Bill Nye on October 28, 2006 at 24:20:08:

Tye,

A few questions for you (in no particular order of importance):

According to your calculations(within 500 years), when do you expect our species to reach your proposed tipping point?

When was our dynamic Mother Earth or any planet, solar system or galaxy NOT in a delicate balance?

What decade, century or milennium would you prefer to live/have lived in here on Earth or any other planet?

How many licks does it really take to get to the center of a Tootsie Roll Pop? Just kidding, everyone knows it’s three. That’s a gimmee.

Will the aluminum foil that covers your windows and the salt in your pockets really reduce the harmful effects of radiation exposure?

Bill

import · October 28, 2006, 7:52pm

Re: I Love Good Articulate Name-Calling - Posted by Sailor

Posted by Sailor on October 28, 2006 at 19:52:57:

Gawd, I love good articulate name-calling, especially the anonymous kind.

Tye

import · October 28, 2006, 7:03am

Re: I just do not see a crash - Posted by Sailor

Posted by Sailor on October 28, 2006 at 07:03:04:

I have seen mountains in Tasmania leveled because they had once containded copper ore, & dived once teeming-with-life reefs dying from pollutants. Every time I go to Lowe’s I see the poor quality of the fast-growing southern pine that is now farmed to replace the hardwoods once growing across our land. I feed the foxes now living in the marsh next door because development has displaced them.

I do not think specious arguments should ever replace awareness of our senses, & I have never met a scientist who claimed a bumblebee cannot fly.

Tye

import · October 28, 2006, 7:27am

Re: I just do not see a crash - Posted by Sailor

Posted by Sailor on October 28, 2006 at 07:27:22:

The quallity of the answers are determined by the quality of the questions:

I don’t have a crystal ball, but think we are very close, just based on what is happening to our atmosphere.
Some times are more precarious than others, but no species has ever had so much control over the fate of the others . Our disregard of our responsibilities is fatal arrogance.
I consider the planets aligned perfectly for me to have had the of “Rock Around the Clock” being released the year I hit puberty.
I like to savor the experience, so it never took me less than 267.
I do not use aluminum foil for my own windows, but I do give handouts to my tenants that lists that as one of several energy-saving techniques (along w/using a pressure cooker instead of the oven in the summer).
Being a Jimmy Buffet fan (Parrothead), carrying salts means you are always prepared for the next drink in Margaritaville.

C’mon, guys, you can disagree w/me, but begging the question doesn’t refute the argument.

Tye

import · October 29, 2006, 3:53pm

Re: I Love Good Articulate Name-Calling - Posted by Pit Bull

Posted by Pit Bull on October 29, 2006 at 16:53:50:

I am glad you do. It may show a receptiveness to perhaps what might be called, erroneous understanding of nature and the world around us. Historically the world has existed in extended weather cycles and changes in climate that have produced the ice age and the demise of some species and the introduction of others. We have been and always will be in these cycles and not anything scientists or you or I can do will have little effect on that. Live with what you have and make the best of it. Don’t blame it on some far fetched theories over which we have little control.

import · October 29, 2006, 6:13pm

Re: I Love Good Articulate Name-Calling - Posted by Sailor

Posted by Sailor on October 29, 2006 at 19:13:29:

A theory is a notion about reality that is not only based on empirical evidence, but has predictive value. Sometimes folks confuse “hypothesis” & “theory,” but in science they are not the same.

As a biological anthropologist who, prior to retirement, made a living serving on an interdisciplinary team of federal scientists charged w/environmental protection, I think I have a pretty good idea of both evolutionary & geological processes. The polar regions have both advanced &retreated prehistorically, & we are currently in the Pleistocene. We expect a period of warming prior to a colder cycle, but not @ the accelerated speed resulting from human pollution. Change itself is inherent in both the Earth & its inhabitants (well, maybe not so much clams); however, man’s activities have altered the processes so rapidly & to such a degree that we have not only defaced much of the Earth, but we threaten the existence of our own species.

I think we have an obligation to be informed, & to ensure that our offspring are also educated. Yes, we can make a difference! Knowledge is a powerful tool, & one of the very best classes for REI I ever took was my 1st geology course. Being aware of the dynamic nature of the Earth & its water has made me a much more careful buyer.

In the spirit of returning to topic, I’ll make this my final post on this thread–

Tye