Investing in Fl is a tropical depression - Posted by Dan-fl

Posted by Wayne-NC on June 03, 2007 at 20:09:11:

Oh, and let’s talk about the people moving into this country while we’re at it. I’ve rented to them, so I can. Anyway, as you say, “(and other like-minded Know-Nothings)”. Still calling names are you? YES, agitation at it’s best. I just enjoy your replies. Sooner or later I will tire of you though as it is too easy to keep you all hot and bothered with my unchallenged babbling. Till then, keep 'um coming!

Investing in Fl is a tropical depression - Posted by Dan-fl

Posted by Dan-fl on May 29, 2007 at 19:08:32:

Anybody making any money in FL? We are the worst state, Sales off by more then 30% from last year. My business slowed to a hault. How are you surviving? I,m in the tampa bay area.

Try Michigan if you think that is bad… - Posted by Mr. M

Posted by Mr. M on June 02, 2007 at 23:10:30:

If you think Florida is bad now, at least you HAD
appreciation for many years!
There are condos in very good areas of Mich - Bloomfield Twp for those that know - that were 69K in 1991 - went to
78K by 1998 - after roof costs, special assessments, realtor sales fees - broke even in 7 years.
Same condo went up to around 110K during “boom” until around 2002-2003 - now back down to around 80K.
Better to put your money in an SP500 fund - and rent during that time. MUCH BETTER.

Michigan is a disaster area - we left the state - and anyone who has any friends or relatives there that
you care for I would advise to do the same.

You can be mediocre, and have a good appreciating market like FL was, or CA, or other area - and still do much better than if you are very good, but choose to live (or live because of an illness like we did) for years in a state that is non-competitive, has declining industry, is losing tens of thousands of jobs, and cannot compete with other areas in the US, let alone
other countries do to cost issues, high cost of living, taxes, etc.

Rant off - that’s my 2 cents from experience there over almost 20 years.

Pent-up demand - Posted by Bart (FL)

Posted by Bart (FL) on May 30, 2007 at 09:02:09:

Any comments from the Florida investors concerning the RE tax changes that will be coming. It appears that the Legislature and Governor are moving in the same direction.

Many homesteaded homeowners could not move because their property tax would increase many thousands of dollars. Even for a lateral move, 250K home to a 250k home.

I am of the opinion that there is a pent-up demand that will be released if this problem is corrected.

Agree, disagree?

Also, if it is corrected, what will be the effect on the market.

Bart (FL)

Maybe vacation rentals? - Posted by David C. Cooper

Posted by David C. Cooper on May 29, 2007 at 22:07:01:

This might be a good time to look at the vacation rental market. Low unemployment means lots of stressed out workers looking to blow off some steam.

Re: Investing in Fl is a tropical depression - Posted by Chris WFL

Posted by Chris WFL on May 29, 2007 at 21:29:46:

My area (just south of Dan) just reported "that 796 existing homes sold last month compared with 685 homes sold a year ago for a 16 percent increase. The market?s median sales price for homes was $294,800; it was $302,100 in April 2006 for a 2 percent decrease.

The next best report, saleswise, came from Melbourne-Titusville-Palm Bay on the state?s east coast ? a 6 percent drop in the number of homes sold."

Most of the new homes out on our east side are who took a beating. Lots of new homes listed for 100k+ less than what they sold for a year or two ago. All those preconstuction deals coming back to the bank or the builder.

If they get a grip on taxes and insurance I think it will get better sooner than later. Although I am not sure they will do much.

Looks like they are already trying to set us up for a bad hurricane season also?

Re: Investing in Fl is a tropical depression - Posted by Eric in FL

Posted by Eric in FL on May 29, 2007 at 20:25:09:

One of the old investors said something to me the other day that I knew but needed to be put into perspective. “There is a time to harvest and a time to tend the crops, and you need to be tending better than you ever have before.” In other words get ready for the biggest sh** storm we have ever seen. I mean this in the most positive way possible but the reality is if they don’t monumentally change the property tax laws and the insurance burden we will have no control. All that being said you can make money in any market in any conditions but you have to buy “extremely” right. Don’t even swing for doubles it has to always be a homerun. Keep what you have that cash flows and ride it until we see what happens. Everything is a cycle and it will come back around but who knows when. I live in St. Augustine, FL which was the premier destination in the 1880’s and it took 60 years to come back to prominence. Is that what will happen again? I don’t know but historical trend is what it is. Cash flow equals long term success.

Best Regards,
Eric in FL

Re: Investing in Fl is a tropical depression - Posted by Rich-CA

Posted by Rich-CA on May 29, 2007 at 20:20:23:

Recently talked to a friend of mine and we were comparing Phoenix (where we both have houses) with Tampa (where he has houses but I do not - I chose San Antonio and there is no downturn there). He said Tampa is harder to sell in that Phoenix, and Phoenix takes half a year. At the rate of population growth in FL (mainly at the expense of NY state), you only have a couple of years before the market absorbs the excess units that are causing the stagnation.

Unless you have condos, they seem to recover last in any market.

Re: Investing in Fl is a tropical depression - Posted by Georgia

Posted by Georgia on May 29, 2007 at 19:53:32:

Did you read the articles in the St. Pete Times. Sunday’s article say some guy is making a boat load of money . Sat’s article talked about a guy trying to market his own property creatively, because his realtor couldn’t sell for him.
There a lot of REO’s in our area but the banks must be sleeping. Some as a matter of fact for years.

Re: Investing in Fl is a tropical depression - Posted by RR

Posted by RR on May 29, 2007 at 19:51:47:

You know what, I still believe Florida is a good state to invest, people still move To Florida even after those 4 major hurricanes 2 years ago,I guess the trick is to ID the new trends, for instance 2 or 3 years ago people were investing in pre construction and made a ton of money,6 years ago those who were able understand what low interest rates do to the market just bought single family homes and held them for a while,I have never invested in foreclosures But i Believe will be the next biggest trend in Real Estate,banks are desperate , and you experts correct me if I am wrong,But is hard to tell who is more desperate , the Home owner who cannot make payments or the banks who cannot collect the mortgage payments.
I would to hear opinions from the experts who invest in foreclosures.

Re: Pent-up demand - Posted by vacationlover

Posted by vacationlover on June 02, 2007 at 21:02:04:

You and many of the others have made some interesting and insightful observations.

I’m a south FL investor. Sold off some rental property last year. Saw a little writing on the wall, too, with the property taxes. But, that’s another story.

My personal opinion is that Charlie (Crist) isn’t really going to do $hit, as far as meaningful tax and insurance reform is concerned. Why?? Well, how about that taxes have actually gone UP via the increase in school tax that was passed some time ago. He announced a sweeping change that was promised to be gray-mattered prior to June 12th, and penciled into law soon after. So… Let’s review. Taxes are supposed to be going down. But, they actually go up. ?? End of review.

Phase 2:
Yes. Your scenario is right regarding homestead homeowners being entrenched because of the difference in property tax they would absorb by moving. I, myself, would actually consider changing my primary residence and moving up. But, there isn’t any logic in doing so, given the fact that my property taxes would probably triple. Mind you, I’m not unhappy where I am and am starting to seriously consider huge improvements here. Why not?? The improvements would easily outweigh the tax differential in< 3 years.

Thankfully, we did BUY RIGHT on rentals. BUT… think about this. We’ve got properties that are worth 2-3 time what we paid for them and now, due to taxes and insurance, we are beginning to get skinny on cash flow.

What’s up with that, Charlie???

Vacation Lover

Re: Maybe vacation rentals? - Posted by Eric in FL

Posted by Eric in FL on May 30, 2007 at 08:19:43:


The issue with vacation rentals is that the local governments found this to be a no limit ATM during the boom years. I had a vacation rental go from a property tax bill of $3300 to $13100 in 12 months. I was told that it was because of the “value”. I then said, “Will I be getting another day of trash pickup, a newly paved street, or a transportation service that picks up in front of my house?”. You know the answers but we did get a new homeless shelter. I’m seeing if I can get a discounted rate if I send my overflow of renters there.

Best Regards,
Eric in FL

Re: Investing in Fl is a tropical depression - Posted by DaveB (NJ)

Posted by DaveB (NJ) on May 29, 2007 at 20:11:36:

In a state that still seems to be in free fall, isn’t the risk of buying now,
even at a reduced price, that what seems cheap now might be expensive
in 6 months as the market continues to fall. And if you want to buy and
hold, can you rent these things? Isn’t that the strategy others are using,
turning condos for sale into rentals to deal with the market? It makes me

Re: Maybe vacation rentals? - Posted by Jimmy Jam

Posted by Jimmy Jam on June 02, 2007 at 19:55:49:

You’re a riot, buddy.


Re: Investing in Fl is a tropical depression - Posted by RR

Posted by RR on May 29, 2007 at 21:39:54:

Well,banks are scared they no longer loan money as they used to,prospective buyers(possible first time home owners), are scared,they dont want buy a property for 200k and in six months they will have a property that might be worth 180k,We dont know how low the market is gonna go, the population still growing in florida , it wont stop at least for now,where people are going to go? Wyoming,Alaska,iowa? Dont get me wrong these are beautiful states but they are too cold, too isolated, but going back to florida…if you dont buy you have to rent ,either you buy a property or you rent ,so rentals could be good in a long term or maybe we should invest in commercial land where you can build rentals.
Any criticisms or opinions will be appreciated

What kind of population? - Posted by Wayne-NC

Posted by Wayne-NC on May 30, 2007 at 06:50:33:

The population is growing in just about everywhere as evidenced by the recent numbers showing the USA at over 300 million and counting! The real question to be answered here, especially in Florida, is this growing population one that can sustain or advance a civilization by creating jobs, build productivity etc. or one that is a liability to the state and to each other. A lot can be said of this and I can provide examples of both. When areas economically grow or colapse, there is an underlying reason. Find the nature and the trend of population growth and you will get your long term answer to the future of the real estate underneath anywhere in the world, including Florida!

Re: What kind of population? - Posted by Eric in FL

Posted by Eric in FL on May 30, 2007 at 08:14:14:


You are absolutely right. South Florida saw its first decline in families moving to that region in 20 years. What is moving in unfortunately are a direct expense to the bottom line. I won’t get into who they are and ignite a social class warfare debate but it is what it is. When assets leave and expenses multiply we can all see what the future has in order for the area. Again, not a doom and gloom and this will be a haven for great deals the only question is when.


Re: What kind of population? - Posted by Wayne-NC

Posted by Wayne-NC on June 02, 2007 at 07:48:00:

Eric, Your observations are valid. When? When the liabilities turn into assets, like anything else. I can’t be any more general than that. Anyway, ask the “sneaker maker” what facts he has to back up his accusations. I don’t think that you are a whiner or scapegoating, and definitly not a looser!

population? - Posted by Nike

Posted by Nike on June 01, 2007 at 15:06:16:

More whining and scapegoating–what a bunch of losers. Your last two sentences suggest you’re confused–but I’m sure you’ll try to reconcile them.

Re: What kind of population? - Posted by Bob Smith

Posted by Bob Smith on June 01, 2007 at 13:58:03:

Miami’s urban growth boundary and development restrictions are accomplishing there what they accomplished in Portland and most of CA. The wealthy stay because they can, the poor stay because of welfare, everybody else moves out. The same is happening in NYC, but there the boundary is natural.