Posted by dutch on March 24, 2006 at 22:12:00:
Well, I re-read it as you suggested. It’s “for a friend” who is going back to grad school. But the guy posting is here on this website, indicating an “investor”, and he/she was asking if the “market” in that area was crashing because nobody was buying 3/4 Million dollar homes.
So the property did NOT go up 8% in the (less than) year since he bought it. Not exactly a “crash” in the market.
Dutch
Is Lorton Virginia crashing!!! - Posted by VirginiaJ
Posted by VirginiaJ on March 24, 2006 at 02:25:53:
If anyone here is an real-estate expert in the Lorton VA area who know the single homes market very well, I’d like your opinion.
My friend bought a house in the area summer of 2005: 4000sqft 4 bed 3.5 bath luxury single home $740,000 but decided to go back to gradschool and listed it through a realtor last month.
He listed it for 800k (appraisal is absolutely no problem) but only 1 person every other week comes to see the house and it’s been sitting for about 30 days so far with no offers.
I guess the average DOM is roughly 3 months according to the realtor so it’s a bit early to tell.
However, I’ve been hearing that there are resale homes that haven’t been sold for over a year. There’s even a listing that reads “desperate owner at the end of my rope, make any offer”. LOL Well, it’s not very funny for my friend since he’s afraid of ending up like that too and he can not afford to because his school will be starting in september.
What’s your expert advice regarding this matter?
Do you feel that this a sign of Lorton real estate crashing?
PS: There are NEW homes that are under construction listed at $700,000 ~ $770,000 range, although those are about 1300sqft to 800 sqft smaller than his house.
Re: Is Lorton Virginia crashing!!! - Posted by Sam-I-am
Posted by Sam-I-am on March 24, 2006 at 18:05:15:
Yes, it’s crashing. Too bad for your friend, but the reality is that if he doesn’t slash the price by about 100K immediately, it will probably get even worse for him. Inventory is growing substantially. Get ready for the REO bargains again, my investor friends!
Re: Is Lorton Virginia crashing!!! - Posted by John Corey
Posted by John Corey on March 24, 2006 at 11:30:57:
Since when does 30 days on the market for a fully priced home translate in to a market crash?
For there to be a crash prices would have to go down and by a large amount. You can not have a crash until prices actually drop. Think about the word.
Too many people have a distorted view of what is a healthy and normal RE market. The buying frenzy that was DC and other similar locations was never normal even when it was taking place.
Interest rates have shifted up a bit in the prior year. The press is full of articles indicating that the boom is over (for those places that have not see a boom yet I do apologize). We are heading back to more normal interest rates and likely more normal pricing/appreciation.
Your friend needs to be sensitive to the present market and know what his options are. Maybe extra money put into marketing or a price that undercuts most of the other homes is smart if we are more or less in a buyer’s market. If the home is priced correctly and the market is active then he just needs to wait as selling is rarely a 30 day process.
BTW - Just because the new homes have an asking price as noted is no reason to believe that the builder is getting such prices with no concessions. Make sure you are comparing apples with apples. A ‘used’ home is not the same as a new built home to some people. Larger is not actually better for a lot of folks also.
John Corey
Re: Is Lorton Virginia crashing!!! - Posted by Max-Va
Posted by Max-Va on March 24, 2006 at 08:36:24:
The market accross the state has slowed alot. Days on market are increasing to a more normal level. Is the market crashing? Heck no! RE agents are haveing to work marketing properties for a change, compared to this time last year. The days are almost over of multiple offers within hours. Seller concessions are on the rise.
When checking comps in the area only use last 3 months. Just be patient the spring season will start up soon with warmer temps. If you have the property priced right and your agent is marketing it correctly it will sell. If not it is priced wrong or not marketed.
Re: Is Lorton Virginia crashing!!! - Posted by dutch
Posted by dutch on March 24, 2006 at 08:06:05:
Let me ask ALL of you a question. Just how Large is the marketplace for 3/4 million dollar homes. Now, how large is the marketplace for 150K homes? If you had a home for sale, which has the MOST buyers clamoring for what you are offering?
You can NOT judge a “real estate market” because a mansion doesn’t sell quickly. The real market is in the middle class homes that real working people can afford.
Nuf said.
Dutch
Oklahoma
sounds like a BS advice… - Posted by VirginiaJ
Posted by VirginiaJ on March 29, 2006 at 02:37:50:
got any facts to back yourself upwith?
Re: Is Lorton Virginia crashing!!! - Posted by VirginiaJ
Posted by VirginiaJ on March 29, 2006 at 02:39:49:
Thanks for you rreply.
So do you know what asking-price would be decent for my friend?
Re: Is Lorton Virginia crashing!!! - Posted by Max-Va
Posted by Max-Va on March 24, 2006 at 08:41:48:
Dutch
In Lorton VA area &00K properties are the norm not the exception. It is possible to find a lot there for 200+ but that’s about it. It is a very expensive suburb of DC
Re: Is Lorton Virginia crashing!!! - Posted by John Corey
Posted by John Corey on March 29, 2006 at 04:18:41:
Virginia J (?),
Pricing is a local issue. What is on the market that is very close to what this property offers? What has recently sold that is also very close to this property? That will tell you want it is worth and what the competition is trying to get.
How the property is priced is then a matter of how motivated the seller is.
Sale terms could also be a factor but I suspect your friend is not that experienced so start with getting the price right.
John Corey
Re: Is Lorton Virginia crashing!!! - Posted by dutch
Posted by dutch on March 24, 2006 at 13:55:18:
Well, If it were me, I would find a less expensive playground. 3/4 million is a RICH neighborhood and people making the average 50-75K a year (the vast majority of the population) rarely buy there. Not that you can’t find deals, but the RISKS are much higher as well. But to each his own.
Dutch
Re: Is Lorton Virginia crashing!!! - Posted by Max-Va
Posted by Max-Va on March 24, 2006 at 17:34:43:
Dutch,
Reread the question.
This is not by my opinion an investor, but might be a speculator, but I believe is just a consumer looking to move their residence. If they bought at 740K and now selling at 800K they are really just about breaking even after RE commissions.
I as an investor agree it is an expensive playground as I deal in 100-200K properties, but this does not help in this situtation