Posted by Doug Rink on June 12, 2006 at 09:44:49:
John,
Thanks for the reply and I concur. I know you know. I’ve always believed “A farmer’s best fertilizer is his own foot prints” meaning stay local and focused.
-DR
John D. Behle - Posted by Doug Rink
Posted by Doug Rink on June 10, 2006 at 22:20:22:
Hi John,
In your estimation, are we (us note and re-investors)headed back to the “nothing down” Robert Allen days? I recently bought a note, it’s been years since I’ve done that. I couldn’t make any money (yield spread) for the last 7-years (kept getting refinanced). However, I am feeling this “metamorphisis” and a “tighting” of B-C-D lenders (the so called "sub-prime lenders) so seller financing might be on it’s way back. This will work, hopefully, because RE values will continue to rise (because of inflation) but equity will decrease because low interest rate loans that have been inplace the last few years that we are curing or buying out,(even though there were defaulting) hopefully, this will allow “us” room to buy property cheap and resell with our own financing, getting good down payments and 80% or below 1st mortgages with a “spread” or we could sell some payments (partials) like we used too and get some backend balloons (like we used too) Gosh I miss those days.
So it looks good, doesn’t it? As interest rates rise, inflation continues to rise, foreclosures increase and the population increases…for the next few years us investors might be able to make a little money again.
You’ve seen this market before John, mid-to-late 70’s early 80’s while I was collecting Star Wars action figures you we’re loading up on REO’s what do we need to expect from this market, as note and RE investors in the next 36-months? Should I be buying?
Re: John D. Behle - Posted by John Behle
Posted by John Behle on June 12, 2006 at 02:16:17:
I think it is a possibility, but I wouldn’t bet on it. I don’t bet on any potential changes or market conditions. As to what will happen. I think market conditions can be influenced, so it is un-predictable. Too many factors like politics, the fed or even nature (earthquakes, Hurricanes, etc.) can affect the market. So, even though similar conditions may appear to exist, we may not head that same direction. Even when I tend to think I know what is going to happen, I remember that the profit is made in buying not in holding or selling. I like to find or create the best deals, not try and do massive volume of mediocre deals.
I think way too many strategies people follow are needlessly risky, or based on factors they can’t control - or predict. Real estate isn’t gambling, it’s about intelligence, creativity and having the right tools. Personally I hate gambling. I don’t do slots, lotteries or Keno. Gambling would only interest me if I could not lose, yet had a large upside potential. That’s real estate and notes. I know my basic yield and I have potential for more.
Even though notes are long term assets, I like short term strategies. I like to get in, get my profit and move to the next deal. That doesn’t mean brokering. I think brokering notes is the least attractive way to do the note business.