Market Trends - Posted by WC

Posted by John V, FL on July 15, 2003 at 22:52:17:

That should scare anyone entering to a long term hold in overvalued markets. Paying 25 to 30 times unleveraged operating cash flow and assuming an exit strategy down the road at today’s interest rates is insane.

Market Trends - Posted by WC

Posted by WC on July 14, 2003 at 19:14:58:

Greeting to everyone.
I was at the SDCIA meeting last week and Bruce Norris was the speaker.

It was as great as i expected, but i would like to hear some comments regarding the upcoming market trends, interest rate, affordability…from other experts.

I got some handouts from him, i would love to post it on site or email to those who are interested.

happy investing,

-WC

Re: Market Trends - Posted by Robert Campbell

Posted by Robert Campbell on July 14, 2003 at 20:15:06:

WC,

Sorry that I missed Bruce Norris. He’s a smart man.

Can you briefly tell us what Bruce is forecasting for the real estate market(s).

Thank you.

Robert Campbell

Re: Market Trends - Posted by WC

Posted by WC on July 15, 2003 at 18:31:32:

for some reason, my post didn’t come up last night. orrr…

so, his handout has 5 pages:

  1. cover page -
  2. Medium Price from CAR - http://www.car.org/index.php?id=MzIyMTU=
  3. Annual Housing Affordability - Detached Homes CA
  4. CA SFH Annual Median Sales Price 1968-2003
  5. CA Median Mortgage Pymt (P&I) 1980-2003

I am a newbie so pardon me if i am over-reacting on topics that everybody may already know :slight_smile:

He spent a greal deal of time talking about the affordability, interest rate & PI.

although in the begining of out meeting, some investors believed that the rate will rise soon…He seems to believe that the Feds are going to keep the rates down, despite that it is too big of a risk to ruin the market(s). but watch out in the next 18 months… according to him, we just had an auction held by builders, may be the pros can give a better explanations than i do.

one thing i found interesting is the numbers on the 5th page… again, may be it’s only me, but here are the numbers:
2002
Affordability 28%, Median Price $335k, Interest 6.4
>
2003
Affordability 28%, Median Pirce $350k, Interest 5.0
>

he wrote "$1879 @ 10% of $214,000, 39%discount same PI"*****
Don’t know about you, but it scaries me a bit*(and some people in at the SDCIA)

we also spent a great deal of time talking about creating credibitilty with owners, how to approach with hand written letters… only for those who are interested, email me pls.

-WC