Posted by Killer Joe on April 08, 2006 at 22:56:41:
Joshua,
Loudoun Country has grown from 169,599 people in 2000 to 255,518 people in 2005, (according to census stats). That?s an increase of 85,919 ?consumers of resources? over those 5 years. It was the No 2 fastest growing county in the USA @ 50.7% for that time period.
They have reached a saturation point as far as their water is concerned. Current water demands are draining underground water resources that county officials believe took 10,000 years to accumulate. You can guess where I?m going with this?you need to keep your eyes open. This is not the time to be a speculator there. Not unless your exit strategy is to move to the next county.
If you are currently following trends in Loudoun and surrounding counties, things are in a state of flux. Make friends with a REA and have them print out a list of all sold properties in the last 12 months. Study that list like your education depends on it. It does. If you have the talent you can break down the individual stats for DOM (days on market), the ratio of the listing price to the selling price expressed as a percentage, and the price per square foot into informational blocks The last one is relevant due to the number of McMansions that have been built there. They are a different breed from the native stock, and you need to take this into account. These, and the other info included, will help give you an understanding of the pricing structure in your area.
It?s a little more complicated to become a developer than a reseller in this biz. Especially if your entry point coincides with the saturation point of inventory vs. sustainable growth, at least taking into account the water resources currently available. Cities regularly bring in water from hundreds of miles away, but that?s not happening in Loudoun anytime soon. So it will by necessity see some slowing of growth. When my sister was a building inspector in that area up until a few years ago, they had an explosion of tenfold in the number of new permits issued. Don?t expect this growth to continue unabated, it is not sustainable, and the surrounding counties are feeling the pressure. HTH
KJ