Posted by Doug Pretorius on October 28, 2003 at 16:22:21:
The city might also have some of it. Your realty board would almost certainly have it (maybe not going back a hundred years). Although I can definitely see them giving an investor a lot of grief, so I would approach them from a different angle. If you have school-age children, or can secure the assistance of one, you can try to do it as a school project, I bet the board will help out with some basic info.
But you can get a pretty good estimate by just doing a little detective work. Probably the best way to get a gauge of the last 15-20 years is to take a veteran agent out for lunch and get him/her talking about their career. You can get everything from which years were good and which were bad, to what prices were like in yesteryear.
You can also talk to people in their 70s and 80s and ask them about their first house, where it was, what they paid, and what year. Then you do some comps for that area. You then do a little figuring to determine what percentage appreciation has been per year between then and now.
I talked to one lady who bought her first house from the builder in 1925 for $2,200. That same house is now worth about $200,000. It worked out to about 5-6% appreciation per year. You do that for a few houses around your market, and now you’ve got a historical average to compare recent increases against.
I am starting in an area which has appreciated quite a bit over the last few years. For instance a single family home in 96 was 85k and is now 145.
This is consistent for the 200,000 population area. I’d like ANY suggestions on how to approach this with no money (or anything else)
I originally was going to try to lease/option some of these homes and then lease/option them at a higher price/some profit if they buy (1 out of 4?) and do it again if they don’t.
I don’t think that these prices will hold. I know I can be pretty safe buying only those I can get cheap (60% or less than market value) But I can buy more at a higher price.
Any ideas??
Posted by Doug Pretorius on October 28, 2003 at 09:23:52:
If you can get houses for 60 cents on the dollar, do it! As for prices look back a little further in history to calculate the increase. In my area the last boom ended in 1989, prices then fell in 1990-91, and remained flat from 1992-1998. Since 1999 they’ve gone up 50%. So if you average that 50% gain over the entire 13 year cycle, you end up with the realization that prices are right about where they should be, when compared to historical (100 year) average increases. That means that while the market is sure to slow (and it has begun to here) and prices likely won’t go up much more, they’re not likely to go down by much either.
Could you point me in a direction to find that same info for my area? I’ve checked with the BOR here, and nothing. Maybe I just need to find the right person? I’ve also checked the census from 1990, and 2000. Provides some insight, but not what I need totally.
I’d also like to see data on new vs. existing home sales. The excess farmland around Indy has been chopped up and built on quicker than ever before, making existing home prices in the 'burbs suffer. Really, about 2 years of just flat prices, while the builders continue to offer incentives, and low monthly payments.
Anywhere I could find some insight into all of this? The BOR really hasn’t been of much help at all. I get the feeling they’re not welcoming investors with open arms, as I’m not part of their little club.