Re: Question for HouseRookie … - Posted by Robert M. Campbell
Posted by Robert M. Campbell on August 22, 2003 at 17:52:00:
Austin,
>>>>>There is also a system that predicts most Americans to be dead broke at retirment. Another system says that 7 out of 10 biz owners will fail during the first few years.
I ask: “What systems are you referring to?”
>>>>>Personally, such systems can limit the human potential and compound the human fear factors.
I ask: “How does following a objective system that gives you an advantage for correctly predicting future outcomes limit human potential?”
>>>>>The systems that you speak of assume that past behaviors will repeat. It also groups human beings into social norms/groups similar to a commodity.
I say: “Yes, the human beast is extremely predicable, especially when placed in a group setting where the herd mentality operates.”
>>>>>I’m sorry but we are not beef, corn, pork, or
cattle. People have multi-levels of skills, talents, and ambitions.
I say: “I agree, there are indeed exceptions to the general rule.”
>>>>>Human potentials can’t be measured that way because people change but systems don’t.
I say: "All of us have tremendous human potential, if we can objectively adjust to change. Systems are a tool for measuring change (and thus risk) so we can better and more successfully adapt to the world around us.
>>>>>Likewise, credit systems don’t change but people do.
Such systems analyze the past for commercial profit. You can have perfect credit today and still can’t open up a bank account due to past history. You can have perfect credit today with old ones remain for 4-10 years. Financial systems penalize people for their past. IT IS ALWAYS BASED ON THE PAST.
I say: “The fastest horse may not always win the race, but it’s the way to bet.”
>>>>>A human being on the other hand has the ability and potential to do good today for a better tomorrow. What you do today can pay off tomorrow,
whereas systems you speak of penalize you into the future.
I say: “How does a system that is highly correlated with the likeihood of a future event occuring ever penalize you.? This is an advangage, not a disadvantage.”
>>>>>The systems you speak of was designed to profit from past human errors. The system that each of us can come up with has the potential to reward based on internally driven scoring.
I say: “Human errors? Hardly. Credit scoring, insurance premiums, weather forecasting, etc. are based on proven correlations that are more likely than not to predict a future event. We’re always working with probabilities, never absolute certainities in business and the markets.”
>>>>>I prefer a scoring system where each person gives himself in contrast to one given by someone else…ex…credit score.
I say: “I encourage people to do well too. I simply advise them to play it smart by objectively playing the odds (just like betting in poker). Make decisions from your head, not your heart.”
>>>>>Systems are built with an objective. Your real estate system may be different from mine because you and I have different potentials and certainly different objectives.
I say: “Systems are designed to maximize the human potential. They help to take emotion and statistical uncertainty about of objective decision-making.”
I look forward to your rebuttals.
Robert Campbell
