Perhaps a little googling on the subject will help ease your pangs on this. I’m no expert on the subject, but in many cases your YSMW w/C could quite possibly buy into such a community without the aid of guns and lawyers. As I said, there are strict regulations that allow for 55+ older communities to exist, and for very good reasons.
Do me a favor…don’t jump on Denny’s for their 55 and older selections on the back of their menu. I’ve waited a long time to be eligable for the discounts, and this is my year to take advantage of those geezer specials, so don’t screw it up for me. I know the argument is that now that I’m 55 I’ve had longer to save up for my breakfast so I should pay more, but I want that danged discount. Americans need something to look forward to now that Bob Barker is retiring, and I look forward to cheap bacon. But that’s just me…
Just wanted to get your opinions…I personally do not feel that it’s anywhere near time to invest in Florida real estate again.
However, a friend of ours is a realtor in the area and seems to feel that we are near the bottom, and that this is THE time to buy, since people are now able to negotiate even better prices than the listing prices…and he feels that once the market comes up again, there won’t be any big negotiating room.
Posted by Jeff Morelock on January 18, 2007 at 12:47:34:
But yes now is the time. The market has pretty much corrected intself, and prices are going to go back up. (Spring will be nice and warm, and in 2008 the money flows…)
It’s not going to be like a wild west shootout anymore where one-course-wonders can put on a blindfold, walk any direction, and make $25,000 off the first property they bump into, but there is plenty of money to be made if you know where to look.
Re: Time to invest in Florida again??? - Posted by Eric in FL
Posted by Eric in FL on January 12, 2007 at 10:15:30:
As a buy and hold investor in Florida in the past ten years I have become very wealthy because of the values. The reality is that equity and a quarter gives you 25 cents. The taxes and insurance have tripled in the last 2 years and they will continue up. Taxation without representation comes to mind as one bill went from $2800 to $11650. Trust me, if you follow simple economics of expanding areas there are fundamentals that make Florida a hard sell to corporate relocations. There will be a long cycle that will have to be corrected for real estate to make sense as an investor and not a speculator. You can make money in any market but the buy and hold deals are VERY few and far between.
Re: Time to invest in Florida again??? - Posted by DavidB (NJ)
Posted by DavidB (NJ) on January 12, 2007 at 09:05:34:
Hi Brad,
Well here’s some real concrete info for everybody:
I inherited my aunt’s condo in 55+ community called Century Village in
Deerfield Beach, about 30 minutes from Fort Lauderdale, 15 minutes
from Boca Raton. The storms of 2005 really hit the complex, which is
very large, but the most lasting effects today are so many of the
beautiful palm trees that gave the place a great charm were destroyed.
Before the storm 2bdrm, 2ba condos were selling in the $170s to
$190s. We listed last March for $159K. We’ve since had a number of
drops and we’re now at $134K, which is too high. One sold a few
months ago for about $139K but it had been totally remodeled. One
that had not been updated (they were all built in the late 70s), like
ours, sold a few weeks ago for $115K, though I believe it was smaller
or only had 1 bath. Still, you can see how drastically things have fallen.
I don’t know if other complexes or SFHs have seen this drastic a drop. I
still have the unit on the market. Anybody interested? The problem we
face is that complex bylaws don’t allow us to rent it out. Fortunately,
there’s no mortgage on it so it’s just costing the expenses and taxes.
I’d like to get some cash out but it might be better to sit it out.
David
As one who resides in south Florida, I am of the opinion we are no where near a bottom in my area, and probably much of the state. Your Realtor friend has an agenda. He has a vested interest in an appreciating market.
But the reality here is ugly. We had a five year run up in prices. To the tune in some areas of 30% annually. This alone has made housing unaffordable for many. That run up in prices resulted in a comparable run up in property taxes. That house selling for the median price of around $360K will see its taxes jump from, say, $2,200/year to $6,500/year! Ouch!
And if this isn’t enough, the wild card in all of this is homeowners insurance. Since Wilma blew through my area in October, 2005, the average homeowner has seen their insurance double. And that’s a conservative estimate. Personally, I have had my insurance rates qaudruple! Yes, I said quadruple. I am soon to be paying $8,500 per year because my insurer has notified the state they are pulling out and will no longer renew any existing policies. That leaves me, along with several hundred thousand other Florida homeowners, in a bind. So we are forced to go with the insurer of last resort, Citizens. This is a state run agency and, as you can imagine, is FUBAR.
So, no, I don’t think this market is anywhere near a bottom. In fact, yesterday’s Sun-Sentinel ran an article which stated that, for the first time in thirty years, the moving industry is showing a net increase in households moving OUT of the state, versus those moving in. Here’s the link for those of you interested: http://www.sun-sentinel.com/business/local/sfl-zmoving11jan11,0,4784374.story
As I said, the market here is ugly at present, and I don’t see it getting better any time soon. My two cents. Thanks for listening.
Hmmmmn, a realtor(salesman) telling you when its the right time to buy. I wonder if they happended to also be telling buers it was the absolute right time to buy in 05 because if you didn’t you were going to miss out and there would be no more good home left.
Tip #1 a realtor is a SALESMAN.
Tip #2 refer to tip #1.
If you were a relator in any area, but especially florida, wouldn’t you be saying the same thing? As a relator your lively hood is to sell properties. There will most likiely be a time, but when it is, is another question. If I were a betting man I would bet that it is likely to go further down, but who knows?
Re: All of yo need to read this!!! - Posted by Eric in FL
Posted by Eric in FL on January 14, 2007 at 11:13:33:
This article is talking about a very wealthy area that is not effected by 9 - 5 middle class real estate transactions. These properties will always sell as they are immune from interest rates and the need for employment to support the household. Take a look at the so called bread and butter neighborhoods that have 400k houses and $8000 tax bills and $3000 insurance bills. I realize there is no “real estate market” but there are regional markets and the one that is the 4/2 house in Florida is going to be scary for years to come. California in the 90’s and NY in the late 80’s comes to mind. Analysis of those past markets show a 7 - 10 year cycle. And once more is that interest rates were very high and came down and we will feel the inverse effect. Cash is king in the years to come and there will be deals to be had.
I feel your pain. The same phenomenon is happening in with condominiums in some areas of Hawaii right now (Kona,on the Big Island) just like you have described in Florida.
Property taxes have doubled in the last 4 years, right along with property values.
Because of the earthquate in Nov 2006, the cost of hazard insurance has doubled in the last year.
Property values are only down 10% so far off their 2006 peaks, but condominium owners on fixed incomes are definitely getting squeezed for lack of income.
Thanks for sharing your story, and best of luck to you.
Follow the money. All the speculators have been trading properties back and forth driving up the prices. The line of fools is getting shorter every month. Prices for properties have not seen anywhere near close the bottom yet. And if we see a recession in the next two years a lot of those second homes the baby boomers have been buying will hit the market again. This would really be bad timing for anyone who thought the bottom was close today. And interest rate hikes, who can’t see these coming.
Posted by Wayne-NC on January 15, 2007 at 11:00:36:
It seems to loosely translate into a very expensive loan! The same goes for auto insurance. I personally don’t claim anything unless it is an absolute catastrophy! My borrowing costs are much less than the expected insurance increases, most of which are avoidable.
One of the problems is that Century Village is 55+ only and that limits who can buy. They are also will not share with you if the 20% rule has been filled and then they tend to reserve for heirs. I am a Realtor in the area and the assessments at some of these complexes were pretty high.
On the same note…I focus on affordable properties for the middle class…like teachers, firefighters, policeofficers, medical etc and I am busy with this niche. www.affordablehousingseminars.com
There is more bad news to come in coastal areas. I just heard
yesterday that Farm Bureau is bailing on wind insurance (i.e.
hurricanes) on ALL properties in my NC coastal county. Even
though we w/be able to insure through a pool, the publicity alone
is bound to affect prices negatively. The insurance problem is
going to get worse. This does not mean prices w/be down
forever, as the public has a short memory, but I’d be cautious.
That doesn’t mean I’m not buying, just that I have repositioned
myself & altered strategy. I’m also beginning to prepare to sell
my waterfront. I think right now there are better areas in the SE
to invest than FL., both coastal & inland.
Jack, I recommend you research Ray Alcorn’s posts on
demographics on the Commercial Forum on this site. I also
recommend you start reading the posts & Archives on the MH site.
There’s a lot of smart investors over there–